
As we step into a new year, many of us are faced with decisions that feel more significant than ever. A new chapter often brings fresh opportunities but also uncertainty - whether we’re leading a team through organisational change, navigating economic volatility, or making personal decisions that ripple through our lives. So, how do we approach decision-making when the answers are unclear?
The other day, I was in a bookshop standing in front of a bookshelf, trying to choose the perfect book. I knew I wanted to try something new, but the options were endless, and without knowing what each book was like, it was easy to feel overwhelmed. I dithered for so long, I ran out of time, and simply reached out for a familiar author, instead of discovering something new. This mirrors the challenge of decision-making in uncertainty - how do we choose when we don’t have all the information?
Why is Decision-Making Harder in Uncertainty?
If you've been following my blogs, you'll know by now that our brains are wired to seek certainty. Neuroscience tells us that ambiguity triggers the amygdala, the part of the brain associated with fear and threat detection. This can lead to heightened stress responses, making it harder to think clearly and objectively.
When faced with incomplete or conflicting information, we may:
Avoid decisions altogether, fearing the potential for a wrong move.
Default to familiar patterns, even when they’re no longer effective.
Overanalyse options, leading to decision paralysis.
In these moments, it’s natural to feel stuck. But understanding these responses can help us navigate them more effectively.
The Cost of Inaction
While hesitation can sometimes buy us time to gather more information, prolonged indecision can be costly. In organisational settings, it can stall progress, erode trust, and create a sense of unease within teams. On a personal level, it can amplify stress and leave us feeling trapped in a cycle of overthinking.
The goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty - an impossible task - but to find ways to move forward with confidence, even when the answers aren’t clear.
Strategies for Better Decision-Making in Uncertainty
Anchor Yourself in Values Decisions aligned with your core values are more likely to feel right in the long term. Ask: What matters most in this situation? What’s non-negotiable for me or my team? Reflecting on your values can help quiet the noise and bring clarity to complex choices.
Focus on Incremental Actions When the big picture feels too hazy, break decisions down into smaller, manageable steps. Taking one step forward can reduce overwhelm and create momentum.
Reframe Risk as Opportunity Instead of focusing solely on what could go wrong, ask: What might go right? What opportunities could this uncertainty present? Shifting your mindset can open the door to creative and unexpected solutions.
Seek Diverse Perspectives Involve others with different experiences and viewpoints. Psychological research shows that diverse perspectives reduce cognitive biases and enhance decision-making. Colleagues, mentors, or even trusted friends can offer insights you might have missed.
Cultivate Self-Awareness Recognise how your personality, past experiences, and biases influence your decision-making. For example, are you naturally cautious, or do you tend to take risks? By understanding your tendencies, you can make more balanced choices.
Practice Self-Compassion It’s easy to be hard on yourself when faced with tough decisions, but self-compassion can help you move forward. Acknowledge that it’s okay to feel uncertain and that no decision is ever perfect. What matters is the intention behind your choice and your willingness to adapt as needed.
Moving Forward
Decision-making in uncertainty isn’t about finding the perfect answer. It’s about making thoughtful choices with the information you have and trusting your ability to learn and adjust as circumstances evolve. Psychological flexibility - the ability to notice your response, and to adapt and embrace change - is a powerful skill that grows with practice.
Coaching can be a valuable resource when navigating uncertain times. It provides a confidential space to think deeply about your decisions, uncover biases and blind spots, and gain clarity about your options. Working with a coach can help you align your choices with your values and approach uncertainty with greater confidence and self-awareness.
At Change Navigating, we also offer a workshop on Navigating Uncertainty, designed to help professionals explore the psychological and practical tools needed to thrive in complex and changing environments. This workshop creates a reflective space to understand how uncertainty affects decision-making and to develop strategies for embracing it with resilience and clarity.
As you navigate this new year, remember that every decision, no matter how small, is a step forward. Instead of striving for certainty, aim for clarity. With clarity comes confidence, and with confidence comes the courage to act.
If you’re looking for support to make better decisions in uncertain times, I’d love to help. Let’s have a conversation about how coaching or the Navigating Uncertainty workshop can support you or your team in the year ahead. Get in touch to learn more.
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